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系統識別碼 094YUNT5582026
資料類型 學位論文
主要題名 以案例式推理建構不動產估價模式 : 以臺北市大安區主流不動產商品為例
作者 程麟崴
出版日期 2004
頁碼或冊數 94
中文摘要 不動產估價人員於住宅商品估價多採用「市場比較法」,藉由比較相似之不動產成交案例與待估個案之住宅條件差異,進行價格調整完成價格預測,故估價準確度,必須仰賴不動產估價人員本身估價經驗之累積及蒐集成交案例之能力。然實際交易市場中,市場真實交易價格難以取得,導致估價人員於估價過程難以蒐集完整資料,以及因為經驗判斷的差異導致價格的估算出現偏離。 本研究擬以案例式推理技術,透過專家訪談取得不動產價格影響因子,作為系統建構案例資料庫時,描述各成交案例住宅特徵之問題屬性;同時以特徵向量問卷,將專家評比各影響因子相對重要性量化為相對權重,以利本系統搜尋案例資料庫中相似案例所需之屬性權重。最後,系統搜尋出之各相似結果案例配合本研究所提出案例篩選模式決定有效之過去相似案例,提升不動產估價準確度。 藉由不同住宅商品類型各取三個驗證案例,與系統搜尋相似度最高之七組結果案例進行案例篩選,計算勘估單價與總價。研究結果發現,於本研究之住宅市場區域中,一般住宅商品其推理勘估總價之準確度高於臨主要道路住宅及含頂樓加蓋住宅,此結果驗證本研究針對一般住宅商品估價具實用性與精確性。而臨主要幹道住宅及含頂樓加蓋住宅則應視為獨特之住宅次市場另作屬性選取、權重製訂、相似度定義之推理模式。
英文摘要 For the valuation of residence real estates, valuators use the Market Data Approach to compare the current case with other precedents of similar conditions to adjust the predicted price. Therefore, the accuracy of valuation depends on the valuator’s experience and ability to collect precedents. However, prices are hard to collect in the practical market. Inaccuracies in quotations occur frequently due to insufficient data or the variance in the experience of each valuator. This study uses Case-Based Reasoning (CBR), which collects Real Estate factors as problem attributes through interviews with experts to describe the characteristics of each precedent and construct the case base. Eigenvector questionnaires are used to convert the experts’ evaluation of factors into relative weights. At last, the system finds a number of similar cases and filters them with the model proposed by this study to determine the effectiveness of each case in order to improve the accuracy of valuation. The unit and total prices are computed respectively by selecting 3 verification cases for each residence type and filtering out the 7 most similar precedents. The result of this study shows that the accuracy is higher for general real estates than those on the main line or with penthouse-surcharges. Such result verifies that such approach is practical and accurate to general residence real estates in the region given in this study, while those on the main line or with penthouse-surcharges should be viewed as special housing submarkets with the process of problem attribute selection, weight conversion and similarity definition redone to form their individual models.
相關網址 連結...
出版者 國立雲林科技大學營建工程系碩士班
出版地 臺北市
關鍵詞 臺北市;大安區;住宅市場;不動產估價;案例式推理
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